Quantifying Manhattan Residential Real Estate’s Catastrophe Resiliency

Manhattan real estate is both dense and vertical, two traits which can, unfortunately, amplify the damage to both life and property during a disaster.

However, Manhattan real estate’s resiliency and recovery, in the face of catastrophe, is exceptional as we explore in the following case studies:

As New Yorkers remember all too well, the attacks on the World Trade center occurred on September 11, 2001. As of year-end 2001, despite the trauma and fear that ensued, Manhattan’s average condo price per square foot had increased nearly 13% over the year prior. And even the Financial District (“FiDi”) which, of course, was the site of the terrible atrocity, had given back less than 11% of the prior year’s price/sf watermark. Over the course of the next seven years, Manhattan average price/sf doubled, while FiDi average price/sf increased by 161%.

In January 2020, just before the words “Coronavirus” and “COVID” entered our vocabulary and the virus began it’s deadly onslaught on NYC, Manhattan median condo price per square foot had posted a month of solid gain. However, over the next 4-months, price/sf slid 18%, briefly breaking through the $1,400/sf support level established in the second half of 2019. And, after trading along that support level through Q1–2021, condo price/sf appreciated a dramatic 42% to finish out 2021.

As these two unfortunate tragedies illustrate, Manhattan residential real estate (represented by condominium price/sf) dips modestly, recovers quickly and appreciates rapidly post-catastrophe.

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About Us

Our goal is simple: to humanize the world of real estate. Michael Rossi founded Elegran in 2008 on the dual premise of motivation and innovation, with a third sustaining principle added over the years: care. Unique in the industry, the firm has quietly become a key player in the New York brokerage world. Elegran oversaw well over $500 million in sales volume in 2019, tripled market share in 2020 and sold $1B in 2021. Headquartered in the center of Manhattan, Elegran is solely dedicated to serving the incomparable needs of the New York City metropolitan region.