Overall Manhattan Market Update: APRIL 2025

Back to Balance: Manhattan Returns to a Healthy Market Rhythm

After years of extremes, Manhattan’s residential real estate market has settled into a rhythm of average—and that’s a good thing. Following the post-COVID surge from summer 2020 to spring 2022, and the prolonged slowdown in transaction volume that stretched from mid-2022 through late 2024, the city is now experiencing a healthier, more sustainable market pace. For the second consecutive month, key metrics are aligning with long-term seasonal norms, suggesting the market has finally found its footing.

In March, over 2,000 new listings came to market—a 44% increase over February and 15% higher than the same period last year. That supply increase was matched by demand: the number of signed contracts jumped nearly 30% month-over-month, with a solid 11% gain year-over-year. These figures reflect not a frenzied boom, but a return to baseline—a market functioning at average velocity after years of either hyperactivity or hesitation.

Crucially, buyers are no longer sitting on the sidelines waiting for a mythical “perfect moment” or interest rate. Today’s consumers are transacting based on real-life milestones—job changes, family needs, or long-term investment goals. That shift in mindset is fueling a steadier market cadence, underpinned by confidence and pragmatism rather than speculation or fear.

Still, while the market data skews in favor of sellers—rising prices, declining listing discounts and more bidding wars—this is not a universally strong seller’s market. In fact, the current environment could best be described as punishingly efficient. A majority of the demand is chasing a minority of the listings—those that are well-priced, well-presented, and check all the proverbial boxes for buyers. These properties are seeing multiple offers, sometimes above ask. The rest? They’re sitting, adjusting prices, or being overlooked altogether.

The median price per square foot rose 1.3% in March to $1,397, with a 6.2% gain year-over-year—yet the median listing discount remains at 5%. Nearly 22% of sales closed at or above asking, illustrating how accurate pricing and strategic presentation can still yield premium results, even in a normalized market. Meanwhile, the rental market tells a similar story: median rents hit $4,500 in February, up 6.4% from last year, and nearly 1 in 4 rentals faced a bidding war.

A clear divide is emerging between the homes that are commanding attention—and those that aren’t. Properties that deliver on value, layout, design, and lifestyle are moving quickly, often at or above asking. Meanwhile, listings that miss the mark are being met with indifference, forcing price reductions or extended time on market. Today’s buyers are decisive, but not desperate. For them, negotiating leverage exists—but mostly on inventory that’s overpriced, underwhelming, or poorly positioned. For sellers, success hinges not on luck, but on precision: strategic pricing, compelling presentation, and a deep understanding of what today’s buyers truly want.

As we progress further into the spring season, the tone of the market is neither euphoric nor uncertain—it’s disciplined. Manhattan is no longer lurching between highs and lows. It’s operating with the poise of a mature, balanced market, fueled by real demand and pragmatic decision-making. In a city long defined by extremes, this return to measured, rational momentum may be the most promising shift of all.

Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Manhattan Leverage Index

The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Manhattan Leverage Index² is powered by four indicators: supply, demand, median price per square foot (PPSF), and median listing discount.  

It informs us whether the current is a buyer’s or a seller’s market, i.e., which party possesses transactional leverage.  Looking at the graph below, this is indicated by the direction of the curve, where:

- An increasing trend from left to right indicates a seller’s market

- A decreasing trend from left to right indicates a buyer’s market

Our indicator also informs us regarding the relative strength of that leverage, indicated by the slope of the curve, where:

- A gentle slope indicates a weak advantage by one party over the other

- A sharp slope indicates a strong advantage

It’s not just the numbers that matter—it’s the trend's trajectory. Over the past two years, Manhattan’s residential market has been marked by a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. But in the last five months, the balance of power has clearly begun to shift—favoring sellers.

That said, not all sellers are reaping the rewards equally. In today’s market, success hinges on pricing strategy, presentation, and timing. Sellers who align with market expectations are seeing strong results—while those who miss the mark are still struggling to gain traction.

Manhattan Supply

March Marks a Strong Start to Spring Listing Season

March traditionally kicks off the spring listing season—and this year was no exception. Manhattan’s residential market saw a surge of over 2,000 new listings, representing a 44% increase over February and a 15% increase year-over-year. That’s nearly 400 more listings than the historical March average.

As a result, total inventory rose by 13% month-over-month, reaching 6,593 active listings, which is 2% higher than the same time last year. This jump in supply is being met with an uptick in buyer activity—but not all sellers are reaping the benefits equally.

We’re in a market that’s punishingly efficient: the majority of buyers are pursuing a narrow band of well-positioned, high-quality properties. These are listings that “check all the boxes”—and they’re attracting multiple offers. Meanwhile, homes that are mispriced, poorly presented, or lacking key buyer criteria struggle to gain traction.

What This Means for You: 

BUYERS: With inventory on the rise, buyers have more choices—but the best homes still move fast. This is a great time to be selective, but speed matters. Well-priced, turnkey properties in desirable buildings or neighborhoods are still seeing multiple bids. Be ready to move quickly when the right one appears.

SELLERS: Standing out is everything. Today’s buyers are laser-focused on value, quality, and presentation. To compete, properties need to be priced precisely, marketed strategically, and either beautifully renovated or priced accordingly. Size and bedroom count must align with buyer needs, or the listing risks being overlooked.

Looking Ahead: 

As we move further into spring, expect inventory to continue climbing, though likely remaining at or below historical norms. This supply growth, offset by strong buyer demand, should keep the market competitive—especially for standout properties, which will continue to command premium prices.

Manhattan Demand

Spring Momentum Builds as Buyers Jump In

March built on February’s momentum, with contract activity increasing further. The number of signed contracts rose nearly 30% month-over-month, reaching 1,117, an 11% increase compared to last year. These numbers closely align with long-term seasonal averages—a sign that the market is stabilizing after years of subdued activity.

While March may appear “average” by historical standards, that’s actually a strong indicator of progress. After two and a half years of below-normal contract volume, the return to baseline reflects a more confident and active buyer pool. Instead of waiting for the “perfect” interest rate or economic conditions, buyers are making moves based on life needs and timing—a hallmark of a more balanced and functional market.

What This Means for You: 

BUYERS: The sharp rise in contract activity signals increased competition. To succeed, buyers must be decisive, pre-approved, and crystal clear on their priorities. Those looking for value or negotiating room should focus on listings that have lingered on the market, have seen price adjustments, or need renovation—where competition tends to be lighter.

SELLERS: The data confirms it: buyers are out and active. This is an opportune moment to list, especially as the spring season hits its stride. But pricing remains critical—aspirational numbers won’t fly in today’s data-driven market. Strategic pricing paired with strong presentation will position sellers to take advantage of peak seasonal demand.

Looking Ahead: 

With back-to-back months of rising activity and strong contract momentum, the spring market is in full swing. Expect this pace to hold steady through April and May. Well-priced homes will continue to sell quickly, while overpriced or underprepared listings risk being left behind.

Manhattan Median PPSF

Prices Are Rising—Manhattan Pushes Toward a New Peak

In March, Manhattan’s median price per square foot (PPSF) rose 1.3% month-over-month to $1,397. The year-over-year increase of 6.2% is even more telling—signaling not just seasonal momentum but a market steadily regaining strength and facing renewed buyer competition.

After several years of price stagnation, Manhattan is finally pushing up against the eight-year price ceiling set back in 2016—and shows signs of breaking through. As we enter the peak spring season, month-over-month price gains are expected to continue, potentially ushering in a new era of pricing highs for the borough.

What This Means for You: 

BUYERS: The window for “value” is narrowing. With PPSF up 6.2% year-over-year, last year’s prices may now look like great deals. Strategic buyers who were waiting on the sidelines for markdowns may need to recalibrate: today’s prices are tomorrow’s comparables. Acting now could mean avoiding higher costs later as appreciation continues.

SELLERS: This is your moment. The clear upward trend in pricing reflects strong buyer confidence and renewed urgency in the market. For sellers, that means an opportunity to list into strength, with the potential to achieve top dollar before new inventory or interest rate changes shift the dynamic.

Looking Ahead: 

With prices poised to surpass the 2016 peak, Manhattan is regaining its place as a blue-chip market—starkly contrasting former boomtowns now facing price corrections. For buyers and sellers alike, this spring could mark a pivotal moment in Manhattan’s pricing trajectory.

Manhattan Median Listing Discount

Pricing Precision Matters More Than Ever

In March, Manhattan’s median listing discount ticked slightly by 0.2% to 5%, giving buyers more room to negotiate as the spring market ramps up. However, the year-over-year picture tells a different story: listing discounts are down 0.9% compared to March 2024, pointing to tighter pricing discipline and stronger alignment between buyers and sellers.

That said, the headline number doesn’t tell the full story. Nearly 22% of all units sold last month traded at or above asking price—a clear sign that accurately priced properties are moving fast and commanding top dollar. In contrast, overpriced homes are seeing more substantial price reductions before attracting offers.

What This Means for You: 

BUYERS: The modest increase in discounting offers a narrow window for negotiation, particularly on listings that have lingered. But the broader trend of declining discounts year-over-year signals a tightening market. Desirable homes are still receiving competitive, often full-price or higher, offers. Be strategic: know where you can negotiate—and where you’ll need to move quickly.

SELLERS: Despite a slight month-over-month softening, the overall market has tilted further in sellers’ favor since last spring. Properties priced right from day one are selling close to or above asking, with minimal need for adjustments. Now more than ever, accurate pricing and expert positioning are the keys to commanding top dollar in a competitive landscape.

Looking Ahead:

With the median listing discount holding steady at 5%, the market remains balanced, but the trajectory favors sellers. As competition heats up in the weeks ahead, expect well-positioned properties to sell with minimal discounting, while mispriced listings may face deeper cuts to attract qualified buyers.

Rental Remarks

Rents Climb as Manhattan Rental Market Tightens

In February 2025, Manhattan’s median rent jumped 3.4% month-over-month to hit $4,500—a sharp increase that underscores growing pressure in the rental market. On a year-over-year basis, rents surged 6.4%, reflecting sustained demand and a continued shift in market dynamics.³ 

Nearly 1 in 4 rentals entered a bidding war, setting a new all-time record and highlighting just how competitive the rental landscape has become. At the same time, new lease signings rose year-over-year for the 11th consecutive month, while the vacancy rate declined for the fourth straight month, signaling a persistent tightening of available inventory.

What This Means for You: 

RENTERS: Competition is intensifying. Units that are well-priced and move-in ready draw multiple offers, often above ask. 

LANDLORDS: Market conditions are increasingly favorable, with high demand, limited vacancy, and rising rents combining to create prime conditions for top-dollar leases.

Looking Ahead:

If these trends hold, rental prices will likely continue climbing into the busy summer months, particularly in high-demand neighborhoods and buildings offering top-tier amenities.

Mortgage Remarks

The 30-Year Fixed Rate JUMBO Mortgage Index currently stands at 6.75%⁴, while the average JUMBO Annual Percentage Rate (APR) stands at 6.31%⁵. Although rates rose in the fall and into the winter of 2024, there has been a slight decrease recently. Additionally, in late January, the Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates unchanged rather than lower them.

The broader expectation is that rates will remain in the 6.5% range through this year and into the next, reflecting a shift in sentiment that higher rates are here to stay for the foreseeable future.

However, interest rates are no longer the primary catalyst for market activity. Instead, buyers and sellers are adjusting to the new normal, making decisions based on personal needs and timelines rather than waiting for further rate drops. This shift signals a market driven more by necessity than speculation, reinforcing steady transaction volume despite elevated borrowing costs.

Investor Insights

References

1. Data courtesy of UrbanDigs

2. According to the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Leverage Index

3. Data courtesy of Miller Samuel, Inc.

4. Data courtesy of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

5. JUMBO mortgage rate APR data courtesy of Bank of America, Chase, and Wells Fargo

If you would like to chat about the most recent market activity,

feel free to contact us at info@elegran.com or 

connect with one of our Advisors.

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