The Q1–2023 Results Are In

With Q1–2023 in the books, where does NYC residential real estate stand? In terms of demand, the city is 22% ahead of the average pre-pandemic* first quarter.

So, as we’ve been suggesting over the past several weeks, the real estate market in the city isn’t just seasonally strong, it’s strong in general. Too strong for bank failures to steer it off course. And too strong for mortgage rates to slow its momentum.

* 2015–2019

Manhattan Supply: The chart below serves as an almanac, and this year is shaping up just like years past. Not surprisingly, the metric was higher again this week from 6,623 to 6,727 units, and it looks as though we’re about halfway to the June peak.

Brooklyn Supply also exhibits a bi-annual cycle, though it’s not as apparent without Manhattan’s depth of historical data to clearly illustrate the trend. As we expected, the metric increased this week from 3,037 to 3,071 units and it also appears that we are approximately halfway to the June supply peak.

Manhattan Pending Sales: Like the supply “almanac,” the historical pending sales chart provides us with a very clear picture of what to expect. Any deviation from the large peak in June and the smaller peak in December would certainly qualify as “news” and be reported. As expected, the metric increased week over week from 2,595 to 2,731 units and it appears the borough is roughly halfway to that first peak.

Brooklyn Pending Sales: This week’s observation is the same as what we witnessed in Manhattan where, right on cue, the metric reached its seasonal February trough and then reversed direction. We can also predict that the first of two peaks this year should occur in June and that the metric is about halfway there. This week, pending sales increased from 1,565 to 1,665 units.

Manhattan Contracts Signed: After spending July 2022 to January 2023 below the historical average (the average weekly number of signed contracts from Jan 5, 2015 to Mar 1, 2020), demand for Manhattan has now remained above that average for the past eight weeks. This week, signed contracts increased from 234 to 272, the highest mark since May 2022.

Brooklyn Contracts Signed: Brooklyn continues to peak since the pandemic. After briefly touching the pre-pandemic average (the average weekly number of signed contracts from Jan 5, 2015 to Mar 1, 2020) in mid-January, which has become the metric’s support level for the past two years, signed contracts have skyrocketed above that average. Week over week, contract volume increased from 151 to 175, the highest point since August 2022.

New Development Insights

As reported by Marketproof, 82 new development contracts were reported across 52 buildings this week. The following were the top-selling new developments of the week:

• 44 EUCLID AVE (Cypress Hills)
• 450 WASHINGTON (Tribeca)
• POST HOUSE (Boerum Hill)
• THE CORTLAND (West Chelsea)

If you would like to chat about the most recent market activity, feel free to contact us at info@elegran.com or connect with one of our Advisors.