Week of 4/10/23

A Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market: What Does Elegran’s Leverage Indicator Tell Us?

When we talk about real estate, we typically discuss demand, and for good reason, since demand is the fuel that runs the industry. This week, however, we want to broaden our focus and provide an update on the other metrics powering Elegran’s Leverage Indicator: supply, median listing discount, and price-per-square-foot.

Supply is increasing, which is to be expected in the spring. Median listing discount has also been increasing. But price-per-square-foot has been on the decline, perhaps to the surprise of many. The direction of each favors buyers. (NOTE: listing discount and price/sf lag the market by approximately three months and may have changed course by the time of this publication.)

That said, demand across the city has been increasing rapidly since January, favoring sellers. Demand has been so robust, in fact, that it has overpowered the other metrics and shifted transactional leverage from buyers to sellers, at least temporarily.

Manhattan Supply: The chart below serves as an almanac, and this year is shaping up just like years past. This week, supply totals 6,723 units, and that number should continue to increase en route to the June peak.

Brooklyn Supply also exhibits a bi-annual cycle, though it’s not as apparent without Manhattan’s depth of historical data to clearly illustrate the trend. This week, 3,023 units were on the market. That number is expected to increase as we head toward the June supply peak.

Manhattan Pending Sales: Like the supply “almanac,” the historical pending sales chart provides us with a very clear picture of what to expect. Any deviation from the large peak in June and the smaller peak in December would certainly qualify as “news” and be reported. As expected, the metric increased week over week from 2,731 to 2,812 units as the borough heads toward its first peak.

Brooklyn Pending Sales: This week’s observation is the same as what we witnessed in Manhattan where, right on cue, the metric reached its seasonal February trough and then reversed direction. We can also predict that the first of two peaks this year should occur in June and that the metric is about halfway there. This week, pending sales increased from 1,665 to 1,699 units.

Manhattan Contracts Signed: After spending July 2022 to January 2023 below the historical average (the average weekly number of signed contracts from Jan 5, 2015 to Mar 1, 2020), demand for Manhattan has now remained above that average for the past nine weeks. This week, 249 contracts were signed.

Brooklyn Contracts Signed: Brooklyn continues to peak since the pandemic. After briefly touching the pre-pandemic average (the average weekly number of signed contracts from Jan 5, 2015 to Mar 1, 2020) in mid-January, which has become the metric’s support level for the past two years, signed contracts have skyrocketed above that average. This week, 130 contracts were signed.

New Development Insights

As reported by Marketproof, 71 new development contracts were reported across 42 buildings this week. The following were the top-selling new developments of the week:

• THE GREENE (Long Island City) reported 11 contracts
• 300 WEST 30 STREET (Chelsea) reported 7 contracts

If you would like to chat about the most recent market activity, feel free to contact us at info@elegran.com or connect with one of our Advisors.