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Our in-house research experts provide valuable weekly and monthly analysis on the Manhattan and Brooklyn markets. This is more than just data. We consider what's happening in the industry and offers actionable advice to keep our clients ahead of the curve. .
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Weekly Manhattan & Brooklyn Market Update: 10/14
Supply Returns to Seasonal Uptrend After last week’s unexpected dip, inventory in Manhattan and Brooklyn rebounded to follow their seasonal upward trend. Manhattan’s supply increased by 2.7% to 6,756 units, while Brooklyn’s rose by 1.7% to 3,429 units. New listings showed mixed results compared to the previous week, with Manhattan experiencing a 9% decline while Brooklyn posted a nearly 6% gain. Year-over-year, Manhattan’s inventory is down 5%, whereas Brooklyn’s is up nearly 9%, showing different market patterns in each borough. Overall, buyer demand continues to show resilience despite some shifts in contract activity. Manhattan saw a 5% decrease in contract signings this past week, totaling 187, though this still represents a 24% increase from last year. Meanwhile, Brooklyn’s contract volume remained at 133, reflecting a 12% year-over-year gain. The recent rise in pending sales across both boroughs marks the first significant week-over-week increase since early July, indicating that the market may have reached its seasonal low, with contract activity beginning to build momentum. The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Consumer Sentiment Index declined, reflecting the shift from summer to fall adjustments. As the new seasonal adjustment took effect and contract volumes were factored in, the index fell from +31 to +15. Despite this dip in sentiment, the return to an upward supply trend and growing pending sales suggest that the market is adjusting to seasonal patterns while still showing signs of underlying strength. Manhattan Supply After a brief dip last week, inventory rebounded by 2.7%, reaching 6,756 units for sale. This week saw 270 new properties hit the market, marking a 9% drop from the previous week and a 20% decline compared to last year. Overall, Manhattan’s supply has shrunk by 5% year-over-year. Data courtesy of UrbanDigs Brooklyn Supply Like Manhattan, Brooklyn’s inventory increased by 1.7% to 3,429 units for sale following an unexpected dip last week. However, unlike Manhattan, the number of new listings grew by nearly 6% from the previous week, with 179 units coming on the market. While this week’s new listings are still down 12% from last year, Brooklyn’s overall supply remains nearly 9% higher than in 2023. Data courtesy of UrbanDigs Manhattan Pending Sales: Pending sales climbed 4.3% to 2,653 units, marking the first significant week-over-week increase since early July. This uptick suggests that pending sales may have reached their seasonal low for the fall and are poised to trend upward as contract activity picks up momentum. Brooklyn Pending Sales: Pending sales increased by 3.2% to 1,716 units, marking the first week-over-week gain since early July. This rise likely signals that pending sales have reached their fall low and are set to trend upward as contract activity gains momentum. Manhattan Consumer Sentiment The number of signed contracts in Manhattan dropped by 5% over the past week, totaling 187. Despite the decline, this represents a 24% increase compared to last year. As a result, the Eegran | Forbes Global Properties Manhattan Consumer Sentiment Index declined from +10 to -3. Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Brooklyn’s residential real estate market held steady this week, with 133 contract signings, unchanged from the previous week. This marks a 12% increase from the same period last year. However, the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Index decreased from +82 to +73, reflecting a shift in the index’s seasonal adjustment from summer to fall. New Development Insights Marketproof reported that 48 new development contracts were signed in 34 buildings this week. The following buildings were the top-selling new developments of the week: - Mason LIC (Long Island City) signed 4 contracts - Govley Condominium (Columbia Waterfront) signed 3 contracts. If you would like to chat about the most recent market activity, feel free to contact us at info@elegran.com or connect with one of our Advisors. About Us Welcome to Elegran | Forbes Global Properties, where our mission is to revolutionize the world of real estate. Founded in 2008 by Michael Rossi, our journey began with an unwavering drive for motivation, innovation, and a genuine care for our clients. As an independently owned brokerage, we pride ourselves on our elite team of "advisors," offering a personalized touch that goes above and beyond the traditional real estate experience. Armed with robust data insights, we empower our clients to make informed decisions that lead to success. Distinguished as the exclusive member of the invitation-only Forbes Global Properties network in NYC, Elegran proudly stands at the forefront of excellence. This exclusive partnership broadens our horizons, enabling us to connect buyers, sellers, and investors with extraordinary luxury properties not only in New York City but across the globe. Our passion lies in turning your real estate dreams into reality, and we are committed to providing exceptional service at every step of the journey. Are you ready to experience the Elegran difference? Dive into the possibilities at www.elegran.com and embark on an unforgettable real estate adventure with us.
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Weekly Manhattan & Brooklyn Market Update: 10/7
Rihards Gederts - Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Early Supply Drop and Rising Demand Tightens Market Competition Manhattan and Brooklyn saw surprising early declines in available inventory, with Manhattan’s supply down 3% to 6,578 units. While it’s common for new listings to slow, it’s unusual for overall supply to shrink this early in the season. Only 296 new listings were added, 21% fewer than the same week last year, and year-over-year supply is down 7% in the borough, fueling increased competition as buyer demand rises. Brooklyn’s market followed suit, with a 2.5% drop in available apartments, bringing the total to 3,372 units. New listings fell 20% from last week, though overall supply is still 7% higher than last year. Contract signings rose as expected in both markets. Manhattan saw a 5% increase to 197 contracts, 15% higher than last year, while Brooklyn’s signings jumped nearly 19% to 133, marking a 24% year-over-year rise. The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Consumer Sentiment Index reflected this and rose from +22 to +29. Manhattan Supply This week, Manhattan’s housing inventory dropped by 3%, leaving 6,578 properties for sale. It’s unusual to see supply declining this early in the fall season, deviating from typical seasonal trends and highlighting the current market’s distinctiveness. Although 296 new listings were added, the pace of new inventory is slowing, with this week’s additions down 21% compared to last year. Overall, supply has decreased by 7% year-over-year, and when combined with growing buyer demand, this keeps the market highly competitive. Data courtesy of UrbanDigs Brooklyn Supply Brooklyn’s residential real estate market also experienced an unexpected dip in available apartments last week, with inventory shrinking by 2.5% to 3,372 units. Similar to trends in Manhattan, the number of new listings dropped by 20% compared to the previous week, with only 167 units hitting the market. While this week’s new listings are in line with last year's period, overall supply in Brooklyn remains 7% higher than in 2023. Data courtesy of UrbanDigs Manhattan Pending Sales: Pending sales continued trending downward, declining by 4.4% to 2,544 units. Brooklyn Pending Sales: Pending sales continued trending downward, declining by 1.5% to 1,662 units. Manhattan Consumer Sentiment Contract signings in Manhattan increased by 5% over the past week, with 197 contracts signed—15% more than the same week last year. The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Manhattan Consumer Sentiment Index echoed this positive trend, rising from +1 to +10 for the second consecutive week. Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Brooklyn’s residential real estate market saw a notable surge in activity this week, with contract signings jumping nearly 19% to 133. This marks a substantial 24% increase compared to last year's period. Reflecting this heightened activity, the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Index rose from +55 to +82. New Development Insights Marketproof reported that 57 new development contracts were signed in 38 buildings this week. The following buildings were the top-selling new developments of the week: - 255 East 77th Street (Upper East Side) signed 9 contracts - 393 West End Avenue (Upper West Side), Hendrix House (Kips Bay), The Rogers Residences (Prospect Lefferts Gardens), and Mason LIC (Long Island City) each signed 3 contracts. If you would like to chat about the most recent market activity, feel free to contact us at info@elegran.com or connect with one of our Advisors. About Us Welcome to Elegran | Forbes Global Properties, where our mission is to revolutionize the world of real estate. Founded in 2008 by Michael Rossi, our journey began with an unwavering drive for motivation, innovation, and a genuine care for our clients. As an independently owned brokerage, we pride ourselves on our elite team of "advisors," offering a personalized touch that goes above and beyond the traditional real estate experience. Armed with robust data insights, we empower our clients to make informed decisions that lead to success. Distinguished as the exclusive member of the invitation-only Forbes Global Properties network in NYC, Elegran proudly stands at the forefront of excellence. This exclusive partnership broadens our horizons, enabling us to connect buyers, sellers, and investors with extraordinary luxury properties not only in New York City but across the globe. Our passion lies in turning your real estate dreams into reality, and we are committed to providing exceptional service at every step of the journey. Are you ready to experience the Elegran difference? Dive into the possibilities at www.elegran.com and embark on an unforgettable real estate adventure with us.
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Elegran Brooklyn Market Update: October 2024
Rihards Gederts - Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Overall Brooklyn Market Update: October 2024 Brooklyn Market Shifts in Favor of Buyers Amid Rising Inventory, but the Advantage May Be Short-Lived as Declining Interest Rates Spur Demand In September, leverage in Brooklyn’s real estate markets shifted toward buyers. According to the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Leverage Index, a nearly 10% increase in supply compared to last year and softened demand have tipped the scales in favor of buyers after a brief seller’s market this past spring. However, this may be a short-term adjustment, as the Federal Reserve’s recent 50 basis point interest rate cut and declining mortgage rates are expected to bring buyers off the sidelines in the coming months. Brooklyn’s housing supply saw a marked increase in September, contrasting with Manhattan, where inventory has remained tighter. This 10% rise in available homes offers much-needed relief for buyers who endured limited options in recent years. Despite the growing supply, Brooklyn remains a competitive market, with properties priced accurately continuing to sell quickly and offering little room for negotiation. Buyers now have more choices but must be ready to act decisively on desirable homes. The decline in signed contracts, down 12.8% month-over-month in September 2024, is typical for this time of year. However, the total of 448 contracts signed still represents a 10.6% increase from September 2023, making it one of the few months this year to outperform last year’s contract volume. The recent drop in interest rates is expected to further stimulate buyer activity, and the increased supply should give these buyers more options, likely leading to a rise in contract volume in the coming months. Brooklyn’s median price per square foot (PPSF) in September 2024 fell by 10.6% from August but was still 2.8% higher than the previous year, signaling the borough’s overall market resilience. With rising supply and softening demand, the market may experience a temporary plateau this fall. However, as interest rates continue to decline and more buyers re-enter the market, this slight breather in prices is likely to reverse, and Brooklyn’s long-term upward trajectory is expected to resume. Additionally, with declining interest rates and more homes for sale, the rent vs. buy equation is beginning to shift in favor of purchasing. This changing dynamic may encourage more renters to transition into homeownership, boosting demand in the sales market while easing some of the pressure on the rental market. Sales – “Neutral” markets don’t exist because buyers and sellers are constantly playing tug-of-war for leverage. – In September, the market shifted in favor of buyers². - Demand (measured by contracts signed) decreased MoM in the buyer's favor and increased YoY in the seller’s favor. - The median PPSF (Price Per Square Foot) decreased in the buyer's favor last month but increased in the seller’s favor over the last year. - Median days on the market increased in the buyer's favor. - The median sales price remained unchanged from the previous month but increased year over year, favoring sellers in the long term. Rentals - In August, the median rental price increased month-over-month by 1.4% to $3,650. - The median rent slipped by 5.2% year over year for the second time as listing inventory rose for the seventh time³. – Meanwhile, the average days on market was the second fastest on record. Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Leverage Index The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Leverage Index is powered by four indicators: supply, demand, median price per square foot (PPSF), and median listing discount. It informs us whether the current is a buyer’s or a seller’s market, i.e., which party possesses transactional leverage. Looking at the graph below, this is indicated by the direction of the curve, where: - An increasing trend from left to right indicates a seller’s market - A decreasing trend from left to right indicates a buyer’s market Our indicator also informs us regarding the relative strength of that leverage, indicated by the slope of the curve, where: - A gentle slope indicates a weak advantage by one party over the other - A sharp slope indicates a strong advantage It’s not the exact numbers that matter most—it’s the direction and slope of the trend. After experiencing a brief seller’s market this spring, the Brooklyn market has now shifted in favor of buyers over the past two months, driven by a nearly 10% increase in supply compared to last year and softening buyer demand. However, this tilt toward buyers may be short-lived, as recent interest rate cuts by the Fed and declining mortgage rates are beginning to pull buyers off the sidelines. Brooklyn Supply Brooklyn’s housing supply increased in September as the fall market brought the usual influx of new listings. Unlike Manhattan, Brooklyn’s inventory is up nearly 10% compared to last year, which has shifted leverage toward buyers. This aligns with the national trend of rising supply and offers welcome relief for buyers who have faced very low inventory in recent years. Despite the increase in supply, the market remains competitive, with little room for discounts on accurately priced properties. What does this mean for: - BUYERS: With more listings available, buyers now have a broader selection of properties, increasing their chance of finding a home that better matches their needs and preferences. - SELLERS: The market may require sellers to be more responsive to buyer demands and price their homes competitively. Properties priced too high often linger on the market and may need price reductions to attract buyers. Overall, the rise in Brooklyn’s housing supply is a positive development for buyers, offering more options and potentially more negotiating power. However, the market remains competitive, and buyers should be ready to act swiftly and pay a premium for highly desirable homes. Brooklyn Demand While September typically sees an uptick in new listings and buyer activity, it tends to be slower for signed contracts. In September 2024, Brooklyn saw a 12.8% drop in signed contracts compared to the previous month, totaling 448 contracts. Despite this, it represents a 10.6% increase year-over-year from September 2023. Although most months this year have trailed behind last year’s activity, September surpassed 2023 levels. With the recent drop in interest rates, more buyers are expected to enter the market, and the increase in inventory should provide them with more options, likely boosting contract volumes in the months ahead. What does this mean for: - BUYERS: Although contract activity dipped month-over-month, the decline was smaller than last year’s, and recent interest rate cuts are already attracting more buyers. Expect increased competition as rates continue to drop and buyer demand grows. - SELLERS: The market remains relatively liquid, but the rising supply highlights the importance of accurate pricing to take full advantage of current market momentum. The recent interest rate reductions are just beginning to impact the local market. Early signs of growing buyer interest suggest that contract activity will likely increase in the coming months, supported by the rise in inventory, which is a welcome development for prospective buyers. Brooklyn Median PPSF In September 2024, the median price per square foot (PPSF) for residential homes in Brooklyn was $958, marking a notable 10.6% decrease from August but a 2.8% increase year-over-year. The annual rise in PPSF underscores the steady long-term growth of Brooklyn property values, reinforcing the borough’s market strength. However, the month-over-month decline suggests a temporary plateau, with demand softening for the third consecutive month and leverage momentarily shifting in favor of buyers. What does this mean for: - BUYERS: The increase in supply offers opportunities for buyers to negotiate better deals and find an entry point into the market. - SELLERS: In this more competitive environment, sellers may need to be flexible with their pricing to attract buyers. Brooklyn’s upward pricing trend has paused slightly, driven by seasonal factors and rising inventory. As supply grows and buyer demand remains more subdued than in previous years, the market may experience a brief lull this fall, in terms of price. However, as interest rates continue to drop and buyers re-enter the market, absorbing the available inventory, prices are expected to return to their upward trajectory. Brooklyn Median Listing Discount In September 2024, the median listing discount for residential homes in Brooklyn increased to 3.1%, up from 2.7% in August, though unchanged from September 2023. This increase suggests that sellers are becoming more flexible in their pricing as demand softens and supply rises. What does this mean for: - BUYERS: The market shift offers a temporary advantage for buyers, who may now have more leverage in negotiations. - SELLERS: The rise in the listing discount signals that sellers need to be more open to negotiations. To stand out in a competitive market, sellers may also need to invest more in marketing and staging to attract potential buyers. How much further listing discounts will rise depends on the balance between supply and demand in the coming months. This trend is expected to reverse as buyer demand picks up and absorbs the seasonal inventory, especially as the peak wave of new listings for the fall has passed and inventory growth begins to slow. Rental Remarks In August, the median rental price increased month-over-month by 1.4% to $3,650. The median rent slipped by 5.2% year over year for the second time as listing inventory rose for the seventh time. With interest rates declining, the rent vs. buy equation is beginning to tilt in favor of buying. As a result, more renters may transition into buyers, increasing demand in the sales market while easing pressure on the rental market. Meanwhile, the average days on the market were the second fastest on record. Mortgage Rates: The 30-Year Fixed Rate JUMBO Mortgage Index is trending at 6.49%⁴, and the average JUMBO APR is 6.05%⁵. So, it’s a “catch-22” for renters, as the rent versus buy scale may feel equally punitive on both sides. Investor Insights The total return is driven by net rental income and capital appreciation. Brooklyn's cap rate is approximately 3.0 - 3.4% for all-cash investors. Unfortunately, there is no net income potential for those investors using a large percentage of leverage, with the average JUMBO mortgage APR at 6.05%. As the chart below illustrates, there was neither a discernable drop in median PPSF nor a rebound due to COVID. So, future price inflation will generate any potential for future capital appreciation. Timing and a strong USD may afford foreign investors, depending on their native currency, the opportunity to realize significant capital gains upon selling their assets. References 1. Data courtesy of UrbanDigs 2. According to the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Leverage Index 3. Data courtesy of Miller Samuel, Inc. 4. Data courtesy of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5. JUMBO mortgage rate APR data courtesy of Bank of America, Chase, and Wells Fargo. If you would like to chat about the most recent market activity, feel free to contact us at info@elegran.com or connect with one of our Advisors. About Us Welcome to Elegran | Forbes Global Properties, where our mission is to revolutionize the world of real estate. Founded in 2008 by Michael Rossi, our journey began with an unwavering drive for motivation, innovation, and a genuine care for our clients. As an independently owned brokerage, we pride ourselves on our elite team of "advisors," offering a personalized touch that goes above and beyond the traditional real estate experience. Armed with robust data insights, we empower our clients to make informed decisions that lead to success. Distinguished as the exclusive member of the invitation-only Forbes Global Properties network in NYC, Elegran proudly stands at the forefront of excellence. This exclusive partnership broadens our horizons, enabling us to connect buyers, sellers, and investors with extraordinary luxury properties not only in New York City but across the globe. Our passion lies in turning your real estate dreams into reality, and we are committed to providing exceptional service at every step of the journey. Are you ready to experience the Elegran difference? Dive into the possibilities at www.elegran.com and embark on an unforgettable real estate adventure with us.
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